Nebraska Cornhuskers #553 over Minnesota Golden Gophers: This line opened at 1.0 has been bet up to where it is now giving us our buy signal value wise on Neb. The markets have underestimated Neb all year. They are 8-4 in conf play compared to Minn at 3-9. Minn is 5-8 ATS at home Neb 8-4 on the road. Neb at home beat Minn in Dec 78-68 as a 8.5 point dog. Now the markets expect a Minn revenge game. You look at the numbers Neb is simply the better team at this point. Minn is 2-8 s/u in their last 10. Now they are being asked to win at a margin where the s/u win is even in doubt.
Butler Bulldogs #552 over St Johns Red Storm: To say St Johns is in rebuild mode would be an understatement. They are 0-9 in conf play. They now take to the road to face a well prepared rested But team. Ponds is not 100% even if he does go and that hurts a ST Johns team that lacks depth to begin with. St Johns tries to hide their weaknesses by pressuring the ball creating turnovers. But does a very good job of not turning the ball over. Combine all this I fully expect But to run away with this game. I have this game at 10.5 giving us excellent value.
Middle Tennessee St. Raiders over Minnesota Golden Gophers: In an era of one and done Mid Tenn as a mid-major is an anomaly. 6 players are back from the run last year. Sr guard Springs out for Minn is a huge loss not fully factored in this line. Yes Midd Tenn play in Conf USA and no doubt Minn from the big ten has played the more difficult schedule but Mid Tenn has won 20 of their last 21. For our purposes seedings are virtually irrelevant but it is telling for this game you have a 12 favored over a 5. I have this game at 3.5 giving us excellent value.
Monmouth-NJ Hawks over Mississippi Rebels: The NIT is tricky because so much comes down to motivation. Who wants to be here? Who had bigger aspirations of the big dance? For Mon this is big and to get a home game they will be motivated and do have the talent to get by what will be a somewhat uninterested Miss team. Mon went 13-1 s/u at home. They were 19-3 in the cong. Granted there was no comparison of strength of schedule. Miss comes in at 68 Mon comes in at 227. However motivation home court and a Miss team who went 4-6 on the road gives us the value.
Georgia St. Panthers over Troy Trojans: These 2 teams will battle for the Sun Belt championship. Both teams won on the opponent’s home court during the regular season. Troy relies heavily on the 3 point shot. If they are dropping obviously they become a tough out. However G. St. is good at defending the perimeter and they have the adv on the inside. G. St also played the more difficult schedule through the season. I have this game at 4.0 giving us excellent value.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies over Wisc GB Phoenix: Big game for Oak as they battle Val for the conf title. Oak has a mid-season dip but are back in good form winning 7 in a row. Gb is an impressive 9-2 s/u at home but only 4-5 ATS. Oak is clearly the better team and will be completely focused tonight. On Jan 27 as a 8 point dog Gb on the road won outright 80-72. Oak will not be taking this team lightly.
Weber State Wildcats over Eastern Washington Eagles: W St. are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and that has their stock lower than it should be. W St. is the better team. On Jan 14 they were favored at home by 9 they won by 3 now just a month later on the road we get a 12 point swing. In a game W. St can win outright I have this game at 1.0 the points offered give us an excellent cushion.
Northern Illinois Huskies over Western Michigan Broncos: Two fairly even matched teams we get to take back more than home court advantage. I have this game at 1.0 giving us excellent value. I fully expect the absolute winner of this game to go down to the final possessions with the generous points offered providing an excellent cushion.
Pittsburgh panthers over Boston College Eagles: Both these teams are struggling big time. However there is still a big difference in pedigree of these two and it should show up tonight. Pitts has played the 14th toughest schedule in the country while BC comes in at 46. Pitts hung tough in their last 2 against Duke and North Car they take a big step down in class tonight. I have this game at 4.5 giving us excellent value.
Texas-Arlington Mavericks over Texas State Bobcats: On first glance this line seems high but it is not. Tex St is not a good team. This will be their 3rd straight road game. Tex St checks in having played the 324th schedule Tex Arl comes in at 145. Tex Arl is 8-0 s/u at home. Tex St on Jan 7th at home beat Tex Arl as a 8.5 point dog 81-73. I have this game at 13.5 giving us excellent value.