Pittsburgh Pirates over Saint Louis Cardinals: Pitts did not have a good weekend in Chic and that has led to additional value for this game. We will take a small disadv in the bullpen for this one. We will however has a small adv on offense. Pitts had a rough weekend in Chic but STl has hit 233 in their last 10 vs. Rh pitching. Starting pitching I will rank even Musgrove and Mikolas are mirror images of each other. Neither strikes out many both do not pitch deep into games. MIkolas has been more susceptible to the HR. I have this game at 1.12 giving us excellent value.
San Francisco Giants over Milwaukee Brewers: Mil is 12-14 on the year when a LH starts. Sf has been better on the road than at home this year. Anytime you bet on SF you are concerned about them scoring enough runs. However the reality is they have been playing much better of late. SF is 8-2 in their last 10. Mil is 8-15 in their last 23. Mil offense has struggled for some time. Given current form we will rate the offenses equal. Hader pitched 2 inngs and threw 26 pitches last night. We will also rate the bullpens equal. What we do have is a med adv in starting pitching.
Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs: Sox are 17-12 vs. Lh on the year. Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 and continue to struggle especially on the road where they are only 17-26. We will rate the bullpens and offenses equal for this one. I will rate the starting pitching a med adv for Sox. Sox are 12-4 when Giolito starts. He got off to a torrid start and negative regression has hit however not to the degree of where this line sits. Giolito still has a 191 BAA 115K 33BB and only given up 9HR in 96.0 inngs of work.
Oakland Athletics over Seattle Mariners: Only specify the Oak starter. Kikuchi is awaiting the birth of his first child so even if he goes his mind may be elsewhere not that he is pitching very well anyway. This will be the 4th time Oak gets to see him. His BAA against is 288 and he has already given up 18 HR’s in 91.3 inngs of work. Oak is 11-6 when Anderson starts. Anderson is a ground ball pitcher does not strike many out but does not give up the HR either. We get med adv across the board starting pitching bullpen and offense.
Oakland Athletics over Minnesota Twins: Oak has won 4 in a row. Both these teams rely heavily on the long ball to produce runs. I will rate the offenses equal. I will also rate the bullpens equal although Treinen is expected back for the A’s tonight which will help. I will give Oak a small adv in starting pitching throw in home field and we have excellent value. Fiers is in excellent form he has a 225 BAA and his under the hood numbers are even better than the surface stats. This is a very good home park for him to pitch in. Fiers does not strike out many and depends on his defense.
Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants: Ariz has played better on the road this year than at home. Vs. Lh to date Ariz is 14-12. We will have a small disadv in the bullpen for this game. I am expecting to have a decent lead that it should not be an issue. We have a med adv on offense. Ariz o the road has hit LH at 310 ba. We also have a med adv in starting pitching. SF has not seen Greinke this year while Ariz hit Pomeranz twice in May very well. Pomeranz has a 303 BAA and has given up 15HRs in only 58.3 inngs of work. His K’s are good at 70 but he has also walked 28.
Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati Reds: We will rate the offenses and bullpens equal for this one. Chic will have a small adv in starting pitching. Hamels is having an excellent year. His under the hood numbers are just as good as his surface stats. Gray is also having a decent bounce back year. However he struggles to pitch deep into games. His numbers really take a tumble when he heads to the 3rd time through the order. I have this game at 1.31 giving us excellent value.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks: This is not about fading Greinke as he is having an excellent year. It is about fading Ariz who has overachieved so far and is a negative regression team in y opinion. Ariz has been stronger on the road than at home where they are only 15-21. Aria is 13-12 vs. LH on the year to date. In their last 10 games Ariz has a 156 ba against LH pitching. Lad have won 6 in a row Ariz is 3-7 in their last 10. Lad are 11-1 when Kershaw starts. We will rate the offenses equal although Lad are in better form. We will rate the bullpens equal.
Atlanta Braves over Washington Nationals: Another horrible loss by Wash yesterday as their bullpen coughed up another one. We will have a small adv in the bullpen for this one. Atl bullpen is OK definitely not as bad as Wash but not close the door either. Offense we will also have a small adv. Robles will not start for Wash today. Starting pitching Soroka got off to a very hot start cooled down a bit but still very solid. Keeps the ball in the park does not strike out many but does not walk many as well. He is holding opponents to a 201 baa. Voth gets the call up from AAA for Wash.
Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers: Hot vs. cold here. Cinci has won 6 in a row Ml has lost 5 in a row. We will have a small disadv on offense although Cinci has underperformed so far on offense and is due for some positive regression. We will rate the bullpens equal. Starting pitching we have a med adv. Cinci will send their ace Castillo to the mound. He is having an excellent year to date. 103K in 87.6 inngs of work only given up 7HR and holding opponents to a 175 BAA. Chacin depends on his defense and control does not strike out many.